A catastrophic earthquake could disrupt marine transportation across coastal British Columbia, severely affecting supply chains to coastal communities and emergency response capabilities. This project seeks to better understand such risks and develop effective resilience strategies for different types of coastal communities. It inquires into how disaster events would likely affect ports, marine transportation routes, and the associated movement of people and resources in the emergency response phase, and what strategies would be effective to alleviate potential consequences.
Co-principal investigators on this project are David Bristow at the University of Victoria (infrastructure systems modeling), Ron Pelot and Floris Goerlandt at Dalhousie University (shipping risk), C. Lin and L. Zhou at the University of Victoria (port geotech and structural modeling), and Anne Goodchild at the University of Washington (shipping logistics).
This project aims to improve understanding of how coastal marine transportation systems would be disrupted in natural hazard events, how such disruption would impact coastal communities, and what strategies could effectively address this risk. Focusing on the movement of people and goods in the emergency response phase of a disaster, the study develops new tools, information, and risk assessments to support preparedness planning by local and provincial governments and the transportation sector. The research delivers: (1) workshops for engaging government and transport sector stakeholders; (2) a framework for assessing coastal community resilience to shipping disruption; (3) a simulation tool based on this framework; and (4) specific findings and recommendations for two case studies – a detailed analysis of catastrophic earthquake risk in British Columbia and exploratory analysis of hurricane risk in Atlantic Canada.
Many coastal communities across Canada are highly dependent upon maritime transportation systems that are vulnerable in natural disasters. This project aims to improve understanding of how coastal maritime transportation systems would be disrupted in natural hazard events, how such disruption would impact coastal communities, and what strategies could effectively address this risk.
Ports across Canada are vulnerable in natural disasters, and their disruption can pose severe consequences for marine transportation systems and the coastal communities that rely on them. This project aims to improve understanding of how different types of ports may be affected in hazard events, with focus on catastrophic earthquake risk in coastal British Columbia, and consideration of severe hurricane damage to ports in Eastern Canada.
Focusing on the movement of people and goods in the emergency response phase of a disaster, the research team develops new tools, information, and risk assessments to support preparedness planning by local and provincial governments and the transportation sector. Through iterative engagement with stakeholders, the research is also intended to foster dialogue and shared understandings of risk that are necessary for resilience planning.
The research consists of an interrelated set of activities:
- Organization of workshops for engaging government and transport sector stakeholders.
- Development of a framework for assessing community resilience to shipping and port disruption.
- Development of a model and simulation tool for the coastal maritime transportation system and regional multimodal logistics system.
- Development of a simulation model for port operations and vulnerabilities to natural hazards.
- Development of an approach for evaluating the effectiveness of the modelling approach.
Research questions:
- How would a major disaster likely affect marine transportation routes?
- How would this marine transportation disruption affect the movement of people and resources in the emergency response phase?
- What strategies (e.g., alternate routes and/or transport modes) would be effective for different types of communities in alleviating the potential consequences?
- Will a port be available, and in what state, after a natural hazard event, considering its own vulnerability and the vulnerability of interdependent infrastructure (e.g., road access, electric power)?
- Based on expected states, what ports could be used for ingress and egress of populations and resources during the immediate and sustained response phases of a catastrophic disaster?
- What strategies would be effective for different types of ports to reduce failure risk or improve functional resilience?